India’s Dairy Ascendancy: Capturing the Middle East Market Opportunity

Executive Summary: The Middle East region presents an increasingly attractive market for dairy produce, a trend underscored by recent analysis from IndexBox. Driven by growing consumer demand, the Middle East dairy market is poised for steady expansion in the coming decade.1 This growth coincides with India's emergence as a global dairy powerhouse, holding the position of the world's largest milk producer.2 Notably, India's export capabilities, particularly in the butter segment, are rapidly maturing, positioning the nation as a significant supplier to the Middle East.5 The confluence of rising dairy consumption in the Middle East and India's burgeoning production capacity creates a compelling opportunity for mutual benefit. This report will delve into the dynamics of the Middle East dairy market, analyze India's strengths and recent successes as an exporter, and explore the multifaceted factors that will shape the future of this vital trade corridor. The analysis indicates that the Middle East offers a timely and substantial opportunity for the Indian dairy sector to leverage its production scale and cost competitiveness, contributing to regional food security while simultaneously fostering its own economic advancement. Strategic focus on quality standards, logistical efficiencies, and understanding consumer preferences will be paramount for India to fully capitalize on this promising landscape.

Decoding the Middle East Dairy Landscape: Insights from IndexBox: The latest report from IndexBox projects a consistent upward trajectory for the Middle East dairy market, anticipating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +1.4% in volume and +1.8% in value between 2024 and 2035.1 This growth is expected to propel the market volume to 64 million tons with a value of $76.8 billion by the end of this period. While overall consumption in the Middle East experienced a marginal dip to 55 million tons in 2024, mirroring the figures from the previous year, the broader trend over the review period reveals a relatively stable pattern, reaching a peak of 58 million tons in 2021. The revenue generated by the dairy produce market in the Middle East also saw a decrease in 2024, falling to $62.7 billion, a 9.6% decline compared to 2023.

Examining consumption patterns by country reveals that in 2024, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia were the dominant consumers, collectively accounting for 83% of the total volume with 25 million tons, 15 million tons, and 5 million tons, respectively. Notably, Saudi Arabia recorded the most significant increase in consumption among these leaders, with a CAGR of +2.9% from 2013 to 2024. In terms of product type, whole fresh milk emerged as the most consumed category in 2024, reaching 39 million tons and representing 71% of the total consumption volume. This was followed by skim milk at 8.9 million tons and yoghurt and fermented milk at 3.2 million tons.

On the production front, the Middle East witnessed a slight contraction in dairy produce output to 54 million tons in 2024, remaining almost unchanged from the previous year. The leading producing countries in 2024 were Turkey (25 million tons), Iran (15 million tons), and Saudi Arabia (5.1 million tons), together contributing 85% to the total production. Similar to consumption, Saudi Arabia demonstrated the most notable growth in production among the leading countries, with a CAGR of +2.6% from 2013 to 2024.

Imports of dairy produce into the Middle East were estimated at 2.3 million tons in 2024, marking a 2.7% increase from 2023. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the largest importers, accounting for approximately 25% and 24% of the total imports, respectively. The primary types of imported dairy products included powdered milk, cheese, and evaporated and condensed milk. In terms of exports, the Middle East saw approximately 1.2 million tons of dairy produce exported in 2024, an 8% increase year-on-year. Saudi Arabia was the key exporter, generating 61% of the total exports. The major types of dairy produce exported were skim milk, evaporated and condensed milk, yoghurt and fermented milk, and cheese. The slight deficit between consumption and production in the Middle East in 2024 underscores the region's reliance on imports to meet its dairy needs. This reliance presents a direct and significant opportunity for exporting nations with substantial production capacities. Furthermore, while the overall dairy consumption trend in the Middle East has been relatively flat, the consistent growth projected by IndexBox suggests an expanding market for international suppliers.1 The varying growth rates in consumption across different countries, with Saudi Arabia showing a more robust increase, highlight the importance for exporters to conduct granular market analysis to identify the most promising target markets. The dominance of whole fresh milk consumption, alongside the significant import volumes of other dairy products, indicates a diverse range of opportunities for exporters beyond just one product category.

India's Dairy Sector: A Sleeping Giant Awakens to Export Opportunities: India has firmly established itself as the world's foremost milk producer, a position that provides a robust foundation for its burgeoning export ambitions.2 The dairy sector plays a pivotal role in the Indian economy, contributing approximately 4% to the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and nearly 25% to the total agricultural GDP.2 Moreover, it serves as a crucial source of livelihood for over 80 million dairy farmers, predominantly small-scale producers, and ensures nutritional security for a large segment of the population.2 India's total milk production has witnessed exponential growth over the past few decades, reaching around 146 million metric tonnes (MT) previously and is projected to reach 180 million MT by 2025, with demand expected to exceed 200 million MT in the coming years.2 This dominance is underpinned by India's massive bovine population, the largest globally, and a consistently rising per capita consumption of milk, which at 322 grams per day, surpasses the global average.2

Historically, India's dairy export portfolio has included products like skimmed milk powder, with key destinations being Bangladesh, the UAE, and Southeast Asia.2 A significant advantage for Indian dairy products in the international market is their cost competitiveness compared to exports from Europe and North America.6 Recognizing this potential, the Indian government has been actively promoting dairy exports through various policy incentives, infrastructure support, and market development initiatives.6 This includes financial assistance, subsidies, and programs aimed at enhancing quality and facilitating trade.8 India's immense scale of milk production offers a substantial advantage in meeting the demands of international markets.2 The cost-effectiveness of Indian dairy provides a crucial competitive edge, particularly in price-sensitive regions like the Middle East.6 The proactive support from the Indian government through various schemes and initiatives is a critical enabler for the dairy sector to realize its export potential and establish a strong presence in the global market.6

The Butter Boom: India's Rising Exports to the Middle East: Recent data indicates a remarkable surge in India's butter exports, with monthly volumes exceeding 5 million kilograms in December 2024, marking the highest level since consistent tracking began in 2020.5 The primary destinations for this export boom within the Middle East include Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.5 Notably, the Gulf region has become a dominant consumer of Indian butter, accounting for more than half of India's total butter shipments, with Bahrain alone importing nearly 9 million kilograms.5 This represents a significant increase compared to previous years, showcasing a clear and strong upward trend in India's butter exports.5 Forecasts suggest that this growth is likely to continue into 2025, driven by favorable global prices for butter and sustained high demand from Middle Eastern countries.11

India's Butter Exports to Key Middle Eastern Countries (Volume in Kilograms, 2024)

The dramatic rise in India's butter exports to the Middle East in 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased milk fat production in India due to supportive government policies and favorable weather conditions.11 Lower domestic butter prices in early 2024 made Indian butter significantly more competitive than products from traditional exporters.10 The concentration of these exports in the Gulf region points to established trade channels and potentially specific consumer preferences or re-export activities.5 The seasonal peaks in exports, such as the high volumes in December, likely align with increased consumption during regional festivals and colder months, indicating a need for Indian exporters to align their supply chains with these demand patterns.5

Economic Catalysts: How the Middle East Market Fuels Growth in the Indian Dairy Industry: The burgeoning Middle East market offers substantial economic benefits for the Indian dairy industry, primarily through increased export revenue.2 This diversification away from a heavy reliance on domestic consumption provides a more stable and resilient growth pathway for Indian dairy businesses. Meeting the stringent international quality standards required for the Middle East market also drives an overall improvement in the quality and competitiveness of the entire Indian dairy sector.6 The need to cater to export demands is likely to spur further investments in modern processing technologies and infrastructure within India.14 Increased export activities directly contribute to the creation of new employment opportunities across the dairy value chain in India, from production to logistics.2 Furthermore, the focus on exporting value-added products like butter allows India to realize higher earnings compared to the export of raw milk or less processed commodities.3 Access to the Middle East market can significantly enhance the financial stability and expansion capabilities of the Indian dairy industry, creating a positive cycle of growth and investment.2 The drive to meet international standards for this region will elevate the quality benchmarks for the entire Indian dairy sector, making it more competitive globally.6 By diversifying its market base, India's dairy industry can mitigate the risks associated with domestic demand fluctuations, ensuring greater long-term stability.6

Competitive Dynamics: Navigating the Middle East Butter Import Market: The Middle East butter import market has historically been dominated by major global players such as New Zealand and the European Union.15 For instance, in 2019, these entities held significant market shares in Saudi Arabia's butter imports.15 However, India is increasingly emerging as a strong competitor, with the potential to displace some of these traditional exporters due to its competitive pricing and growing supply.10 While Saudi Arabia and Turkey also participate as regional exporters in the Middle East butter market, their export volumes are currently lower than those of major global players and India.16 The UAE's butter imports have been on the rise, with India becoming a significant supplier to this market.17 The established presence of traditional exporters like New Zealand and the EU in the Middle East necessitates that India not only offers competitive prices but also ensures comparable quality and reliability to build stronger market relationships.15 The UAE's dual role as both an importer and exporter of butter suggests a complex regional trade dynamic that India needs to understand to optimize its market entry strategy.16 India's increasing competitiveness, as evidenced by its potential to displace US butter in some markets, highlights its growing influence in the global butter trade.10

Government Initiatives: Empowering India's Dairy Export Ambitions: The Indian government has implemented a comprehensive set of policies and initiatives to bolster the dairy sector and promote exports. Schemes like the Rashtriya Gokul Mission aim to develop and conserve indigenous breeds, enhance milk production, and improve the productivity of bovines.19 The National Programme for Dairy Development focuses on creating and strengthening infrastructure for quality milk testing and chilling facilities.8 Financial assistance and subsidies are provided to dairy entrepreneurs through programs like the Dairy Entrepreneurship Development Scheme (DEDS) and the realigned Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund (AHIDF).8 Infrastructure development is further supported by the Dairy Processing and Infrastructure Development Fund (DIDF) and the Mega Food Park Scheme, which provide low-interest loans and facilitate the establishment of modern processing facilities.7 The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) plays a crucial role in facilitating exports by providing necessary certifications and organizing trade events.8 The government is also actively involved in negotiating trade agreements to enhance market access for Indian dairy products.6 Additionally, the "White Revolution 2.0" initiative aims to modernize and expand the cooperative dairy sector, which forms the backbone of milk procurement in India.20 The Indian government's strong commitment to the dairy sector is evident through the increased budget allocation for infrastructure development under the AHIDF.9 Initiatives promoting digital platforms and the establishment of Mega Food Parks are designed to streamline the export process and reduce operational costs.7 The success of these governmental efforts, however, hinges on effective collaboration and active participation from dairy cooperatives and private sector entities.20

Quality Imperatives: Meeting the Standards of the Middle East Market: Access to the Middle East dairy market necessitates strict adherence to the region's stringent quality standards and regulatory requirements, particularly those established by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and individual countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.21 Obtaining certifications such as Halal is paramount for gaining entry into these markets, given the significant Muslim population.22 While the Indian dairy industry has made strides in improving quality, maintaining consistent adherence to these international standards across the entire supply chain remains a key challenge.24 The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) sets domestic standards, but aligning these with the specific demands of Middle Eastern countries and ensuring consistent enforcement are crucial for building export credibility.8 The increasing emphasis on traceability in the global dairy trade, including the Middle East, highlights the potential role of technologies like barcodes and QR codes in ensuring product authenticity and safety.21 The mandatory serialization for packaged dairy products in the GCC by 2024 requires Indian exporters to invest in appropriate technologies for compliance.21 Adherence to internationally accepted quality management systems like Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) and Good Hygiene Practices (GHP), as emphasized by UAE authorities, is essential for Indian processors seeking to export.22 Continuous efforts to improve quality control measures and invest in robust traceability systems will be vital for Indian dairy exporters to maintain their competitiveness and build consumer trust in the Middle East.27

Logistical Framework: Building Efficient Supply Chains to the Middle East: Exporting dairy products, especially perishable items like butter, to the Middle East presents significant logistical challenges, primarily due to the need for a robust and unbroken cold chain to maintain product quality and safety.29 While India has been making efforts to improve its cold chain infrastructure, the sector remains largely fragmented, posing challenges for ensuring consistent temperature control over long distances.31 Efficient port infrastructure and connectivity are crucial for facilitating smooth and timely exports to the Middle East.34 Engaging reliable freight forwarders with expertise in handling perishable goods and ensuring all necessary export documentation is in order are also essential steps for Indian dairy exporters.24 Furthermore, geopolitical factors in the Middle East can potentially disrupt logistics and increase transportation costs, requiring exporters to be prepared for such contingencies.37 The fragmented nature of India's cold chain sector necessitates further consolidation and investment in integrated solutions to support dairy exports.33 Government initiatives like the Kisan Rail and the development of port infrastructure are positive steps towards improving the logistical framework.32 Indian exporters must carefully consider shipping routes and insurance options to mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical instability in the region 37

Consumer Insights: Understanding Dairy Preferences in the Middle East: Understanding the specific preferences of consumers in the Middle East is crucial for Indian dairy exporters aiming to succeed in this market. In key markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there is a growing demand for high-quality, organic, and natural butter options.39 Health and wellness trends are significantly influencing dairy consumption patterns, with consumers increasingly seeking healthier choices.39 Culturally significant dairy products like ghee hold a prominent place in Middle Eastern cuisine, offering a distinct advantage for Indian producers with expertise in this area.6 While traditional dairy products remain popular, there is also a rising interest in plant-based dairy alternatives among certain consumer segments.43 Ultimately, factors such as taste, quality, and price play a significant role in consumer purchasing decisions in the Middle East.44 The increasing participation of women in the workforce in Saudi Arabia could drive demand for convenient dairy products like packaged butter.39 Strong brand loyalty in the UAE dairy market emphasizes the need for Indian exporters to invest in building brand recognition and trust.45 The preference for European dairy brands among some UAE consumers suggests that Indian exporters need to highlight the quality and authenticity of their products to compete effectively.40

Trade Winds: The Influence of Agreements and Partnerships: Existing trade agreements between India and Middle Eastern countries, such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE, have largely excluded dairy products from significant tariff reductions due to the sensitivity of the sector for India.46 While there is potential for future trade agreements with other Middle Eastern nations like Saudi Arabia, India has generally adopted a cautious approach to including dairy in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to protect the interests of its domestic farmers.48 Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US could have broader implications for global dairy trade dynamics, but the direct impact on India's dairy trade with the Middle East remains to be seen.51 India's protective stance on its dairy sector in trade negotiations reflects its importance to the rural economy.49 Focusing on addressing non-tariff barriers, such as quality standards and sanitary measures, could be a key strategy for improving market access for Indian dairy in the Middle East.53 The development of infrastructure projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) could indirectly benefit dairy exports by enhancing overall transportation efficiency.34

Strategic Outlook and Recommendations: Charting a Course for Indian Dairy Success in the Middle East: The Middle East market presents a compelling and timely opportunity for the Indian dairy sector, particularly in the burgeoning butter export segment. To fully capitalize on this potential, Indian dairy businesses must prioritize the maintenance of stringent quality standards and actively pursue necessary certifications like Halal to meet the specific requirements of the region. Continued investment in strengthening the cold chain infrastructure and ensuring efficient logistical operations is paramount for preserving the quality of perishable dairy exports. Indian companies should tailor their product offerings to align with the evolving preferences and demands of Middle Eastern consumers, including the growing preference for organic and natural options, as well as culturally significant products like ghee. The Indian government should continue its supportive role by implementing favorable policies, actively engaging in trade negotiations to improve market access, and fostering infrastructure development. Building strong and reliable relationships with Middle Eastern importers and distributors will be crucial for establishing a sustainable presence in the market. By adopting a strategic and focused approach across these key areas, India has a strong potential to solidify its position as a leading butter exporter and a significant dairy supplier to the Middle East, contributing to both regional food security and its own economic prosperity. India's ability to leverage its buffalo milk production for culturally relevant products like butter and ghee offers a unique advantage. Continuous monitoring of global dairy market trends will enable Indian exporters to make informed decisions on export volumes and pricing. Building a strong "Brand India" for dairy, emphasizing quality and ethical sourcing, will be essential for gaining consumer trust and establishing a premium position in the Middle East.

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