Indian dairy exports to the United States between 2020 and November 2025 show a clear structural shift. What began as relatively stable, diaspora-led trade has evolved into a larger, more diversified and markedly more volatile export stream. The data indicate rising strategic engagement with the US market, as well as concentration risks and tactical shipment behaviour.
The central question is whether this growth represents durable market integration or episodic opportunity.
Phase One: Stability and Ethnic Demand, 2020 to 2021
During 2020 and 2021, export patterns were comparatively stable.
Melted butter, or ghee, was the dominant category throughout. Monthly shipments typically ranged between 70 and 200, reflecting predictable diaspora consumption and established ethnic retail channels. Processed cheese and other cheese categories were present but secondary. Ingredient categories such as milk powders and condensed milk were negligible.
At this stage, the US functioned primarily as a consumer-facing ethnic market. Trade flows were steady and relatively low risk, with limited evidence of institutional penetration.
Phase Two: Diversification and Gradual Scaling, 2022 to 2023
From 2022 onwards, the product mix began to broaden.
Ghee volumes increased, with several months exceeding 50 t-0. More importantly, processed cheese showed sustained growth. Monthly figures increasingly fell within the 60-90 range, indicating deeper channel development. The other cheese category, which likely includes paneer and fresh-format cheeses, also expanded.
This shift suggests that exports were no longer confined to grocery-led diaspora demand. Growth in cheese categories implies:
- Entry into food service channels
- Institutional supply contracts
- Wider distribution through speciality and possibly mainstream retail
By late 2023, the US market had begun to reflect multi-category engagement rather than single-product reliance.
Phase Three: Structural Break and Heightened Volatility, 2024 to 2025
The most striking feature in the dataset is the structural break in 2024.
In October 2024, ghee exports surged to nearly 700, significantly above historical averages. July and August 2024 also recorded elevated volumes of 250-300. Although shipments moderated in subsequent months, the overall baseline in 2025 remained materially higher than pre-2023 levels, with January and March 2025 exceeding 350.
Such spikes are unlikely to reflect incremental retail demand. They are more consistent with:
- Large forward contracts
- Inventory build-up
- Opportunistic pricing relative to global suppliers
- Anticipation of trade or regulatory adjustments
However, the accompanying volatility indicates that trade remains tactically driven rather than fully institutionalised.
Product-Level Assessment
Melted Butter or Ghee
Ghee remains the anchor of Indian dairy exports to the US. It accounts for the largest share across the entire period and is responsible for the most pronounced spikes.
The opportunity is clear: strong brand recognition and established consumer demand. The risk is equally clear: product concentration. A trade relationship heavily reliant on a single category is vulnerable to regulatory change, pricing shifts, or demand saturation.
Processed Cheese
Processed cheese displays comparatively smoother growth. By 2024 and 2025, monthly volumes frequently ranged from 80 to 120, with less extreme fluctuations than those of ghee.
This pattern is consistent with structured supply relationships. Cheese requires more complex logistics and compliance. Stability in this category entails deeper integration into foodservice and retail supply chains. From a strategic perspective, processed cheese may represent the most sustainable component of the export basket.
Other Cheese
The expansion of the other cheese category since 2023 is notable. If paneer is a significant driver, this signals growing acceptance of Indian dairy formats beyond strictly ethnic retail.
Sustained growth in this segment would indicate cultural mainstreaming of Indian cuisine and increased penetration into restaurants and speciality channels.
Butter, Buttermilk and Ingredients
Butter exports show intermittent peaks, likely reflecting pricing windows rather than structural demand. Buttermilk volumes strengthened in 2025, suggesting experimentation in functional or speciality dairy segments.
Milk powders and condensed milk, largely absent through 2023, show sporadic spikes in 2024 and 2025. Although still small relative to ghee, this shift is strategically important. Ingredient exports place Indian suppliers in more direct competition with established global exporters in a tightly regulated market.
Whether this represents early diversification or isolated shipments remains uncertain.
Strategic Implications
Three implications stand out.
First, the US has moved from being peripheral to being strategically relevant for Indian dairy exporters. The scale achieved in 2024 and 2025 cannot be characterised as incidental.
Second, the risk of export concentration remains significant. Ghee continues to dominate value and volume, creating vulnerability to policy and pricing shifts.
Third, volatility indicates that trade flows remain partially opportunistic. Large month-to-month swings indicate tactical positioning rather than smooth, institutionalised integration.
For sustained expansion, exporters will require:
- Stronger compliance and traceability systems
- Consistent quality assurance
- Brand positioning beyond ethnic segments
- Stable institutional partnerships
Outlook
The trajectory is upward, but stability is not yet assured.
If 2026 volumes consolidate at elevated levels and cheese categories continue to expand, the US could emerge as a durable premium export destination for Indian dairy. If volumes revert sharply, the 2024 surge may prove to be a temporary window driven by pricing and timing.
At present, the data describes a market in transition: expanding, concentrated, and increasingly strategic, yet still marked by volatility. The next phase will determine whether this shift becomes structural or remains cyclical.
