At Jordbrukare India, we’re more than just a dairy analytics and consulting firm—we’re a team of agrarian visionaries rooted in the heart of India’s rural economy, blending data-driven precision with an intimate understanding of the nation’s farming heritage. Based in the fertile crossroads of India’s dairy heartlands, our work spans bustling cooperatives in Gujarat to resilient smallholder farms in Tamil Nadu. We’ve meticulously analyzed the USDA Economic Research Service’s March 2025 report, The Growing Demand for Animal Products and Feed in India: Future Prospects for Production, Trade, and Technology Innovation (ERR-347). Authored by Jayson Beckman, Michael Johnson, Kayode Ajewole, James Kaufman, and Ethan Sabala, this study charts the trajectory of India’s dairy and livestock sectors through 2050. With our boots-on-the-ground insights from Maharashtra, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, and a commitment to sustainable innovation, we unpack key findings, infuse nuanced perspectives, and propose actionable strategies for industry stakeholders, policymakers, and global trade partners.
India’s Dairy Boom: Population and Prosperity as Catalysts
With a population of 1.4 billion in 2023, projected to surpass 1.5 billion by 2050, and per capita incomes expected to double, India is poised for a dairy renaissance. This dual force of demographic growth and rising affluence is amplifying demand for dairy products, reinforcing India’s status as the world’s largest milk producer.
Milk’s cultural dominance is evident, accounting for 80% of animal protein intake in 2019, and it remains a dietary cornerstone—woven into daily rituals like chai brewing and religious ceremonies. Meanwhile, consumption of non-milk animal products has climbed from 6 kg per capita in 1960 to 17 kg in 2021, though it still lags significantly behind global averages, reflecting India’s unique dietary preferences. Urbanization, expected to exceed 50% by 2046, is reshaping consumption patterns, with demand for processed dairy—packaged paneer, creamy yogurt, and ghee—surging and pushing the industry toward large-scale processing. The USDA outlines two growth scenarios: the SSP2 scenario, with a 3.8% GDP per capita increase fueling steady dairy expansion, and the SSP5 scenario, with a 6.2% GDP per capita rise triggering a dairy boom that could overwhelm traditional grazing systems. At Jordbrukare India, our fieldwork—from Punjab’s progressive dairy hubs to Tamil Nadu’s resilient smallholder networks—reveals a gradual shift to commercial farming, though feed scarcity persistently hampers scalability.
Feed: The Dairy Sector’s Achilles’ Heel
India’s feed industry, the world’s fourth-largest at 43.4 million metric tons annually, grapples with an 11.4% supply deficit—a bottleneck threatening dairy growth. In 2022/23, feed consumption included corn at 40.5%, wheat at 12.8%, soybean meal at 12.2%, and rapeseed and cottonseed meal at 17.3%. Our research in Uttar Pradesh, where we’ve partnered with local cooperatives to map feeding practices, shows buffalo herds still depend heavily on crop residues, which make up 64% of feed, while commercial dairies increasingly require protein-rich concentrates like soybean meal and corn. However, India’s soybean yields are a mere 30% of the global average, driving reliance on imports.
By 2030, India is expected to become a net feed importer. Under the SSP5 scenario, corn imports could soar to 122 million metric tons by 2050, and soybean meal imports may leap from 2.1 million metric tons in 2020 to 49.4–52.9 million metric tons by 2050. The 2021 import of genetically engineered (GE) soybean meal—despite a ban—exposed policy inconsistencies and supply chain fragility. This raises a critical dilemma: Should India double down on self-sufficiency or integrate into global feed markets? At Jordbrukare India, we advocate a hybrid path, informed by our collaborations with farmers and agribusinesses, balancing imports with cutting-edge domestic yield enhancements.
Production Challenges: The Buffalo Backbone
India’s animal product output is rising, but productivity trails global leaders. As the third-largest beef (carabeef) exporter, India’s cattle yield is just 103 kg per animal compared to 371 kg in the U.S. Poultry meat productivity has grown 8.5% annually since 2000, yet per-bird output remains below global benchmarks. Dairy buffalo, the linchpin of India’s milk economy, face feed shortages, suboptimal genetics, and high culling rates post-lactation, limiting their potential.
Genetically engineered (GE) crops could revolutionize feed production, with the potential to double corn and soybean yields by 2050. However, high tariffs at 39.2% and GE restrictions currently stifle adoption. The 2021 GE soybean meal import temporarily eased feed constraints, hinting at future policy flexibility. At Jordbrukare India, our pilot projects in Maharashtra suggest that crisis-driven policy shifts could pave the way for broader GE acceptance, a trend we’re closely monitoring.
Cultural Nuances: Dairy’s Unrivaled Resilience
India’s dietary habits, shaped by culture and religion, give dairy a distinct edge. Vegetarianism, practiced by 20-39% of the population, curbs beef and pork growth, while fish consumption reached 8.89 kg per capita in 2021—12.33 kg among fish-eaters—with notable rises in Bengal and Kerala. Dairy’s universal appeal sets it apart, as it is accepted across religious and cultural divides, from liquid milk to processed products, outshining meat in adaptability and demand. While the USDA report emphasizes poultry and seafood gains, Jordbrukare India—drawing on our deep ties to rural communities—predicts dairy will retain its dominance as India’s primary animal protein source, bolstered by its cultural indispensability.
Strategic Recommendations for Dairy and Feed Success
To secure India’s dairy future, a multi-pronged approach is essential. Enhancing domestic feed production requires adopting hybrid, high-yield corn and soybean varieties, implementing precision farming and soil health programs, and promoting contract farming for stable feed supply chains. Diversifying feed sources involves exploring alternative proteins like fermented feed, algae, and agricultural byproducts, while expanding trade partnerships reduces reliance on traditional importers. Optimizing supply chains calls for investment in cold storage and automated feed mills, alongside the use of AI-driven analytics to predict and prevent shortages. Empowering dairy farmers means enabling cooperatives to procure feed in bulk, launching government-backed feed credit schemes, and training farmers in scientific feeding techniques. At Jordbrukare India, we’ve seen firsthand how these strategies, tested in our pilot programs across Gujarat and Punjab, can transform smallholder livelihoods and industry resilience.
Potential Improvements for the Sector
Beyond these foundational strategies, India’s dairy and feed sector could benefit from bold, forward-thinking innovations. Integrating blockchain technology could enhance traceability in feed supply chains, ensuring quality and building trust among farmers and consumers—an initiative Jordbrukare India is exploring with tech partners in Bengaluru. Developing mobile apps for real-time feed pricing and availability could empower farmers to make informed decisions, a solution we’ve prototyped in Rajasthan with promising uptake. Scaling up biogas plants linked to dairy farms could turn manure into renewable energy, reducing costs and environmental impact—our trials in Haryana show a 20% cost saving for participating farmers. Investing in climate-resilient feed crops, such as drought-tolerant sorghum or millet hybrids, could safeguard production against erratic monsoons, a focus of our ongoing research in arid regions. Finally, establishing public-private innovation hubs could accelerate R&D in GE crops and alternative proteins, a model we’re advocating for in collaboration with state governments and global agribusinesses. These advancements could position India’s dairy sector as a global pacesetter in sustainability and efficiency.
Conclusion: Charting India’s Dairy and Feed Path Forward
India’s dairy sector stands at a pivotal juncture. Rising demand, feed deficits, and policy constraints demand urgent action. At Jordbrukare India, we advocate a multi-faceted strategy informed by our deep agrarian roots and innovative spirit: bolstering domestic feed production with innovative crops, diversifying feed sources to mitigate import risks, reforming policies to embrace GE technology and trade, and leveraging AI and logistics to streamline operations. With proactive measures—and bold steps like blockchain integration and climate-resilient crops—India can overcome feed challenges, enhance dairy efficiency, and solidify its global leadership in milk production through 2050 and beyond.
